Cisco Systems: The Disappointment Is Now Priced In...
Summary:
- Cisco's investors have enjoyed a great year so far, with the stock rising by as much as 19%.
- Disappointment about Cisco’s fiscal Q3 earnings has resulted in a 5% pullback and flat movement over the last 6 weeks.
- The market's overrated disappointment about Cisco's earnings should now be priced in.
Cisco's (CSCO) stock rallied from the mid-$30s into the
mid-$40s as investors awaited fiscal Q3 earnings on May 16. Despite Cisco
beating bottom and top lines, the stock plunged by more than 5% on the next day
and is still trading in that area as of today.
Source: Cisco Systems - all courtesy remains:
The stock's fabulous rally earlier in the year was driven by
the fact that Wall Street largely underestimated the impact of Cisco's business
transformation which has helped the company to return to revenue growth after
multiple quarters of declining sales.
CSCO data by Y Charts
Cisco is one of my largest holdings,
and as it is trading now above a 3% yield again, the earnings-driven selloff
has created another attractive buying opportunity as the business continues to
grow both organically and via acquisitions.
What
is going on at Cisco?
Cisco's fiscal Q3 2018 report has
seen accelerating revenue growth of 4.4% Y/Y (compared to 2.6% Y/Y for the
penultimate quarter) and an expansion of EPS by $0.06 Y/Y. This quarter
represented the second consecutive quarter of revenue growth, and with that
growth accelerating, it truly shows that Cisco's subscription story is gaining
momentum. These are more than just solid figures, but more importantly, the
company's growth in deferred product revenue remains in the double digits
(+18%) and in line with previous quarter's performance (+19%). And finally
Cisco's guidance forecast revenue growth of 4% to 6% and EPS between $0.68 and
$0.70 and thus right in line with expectations of 5% sales growth and $0.69 in
EPS.
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